Hah, I always knew that AI pundit Ray Kurzweil was up to no good, but this article proves it. Kurzweil is fond of making grand – and vague – predictions about the future of AI, but as far as I can see he his only major achievement that could possibly be related to AI is his voice recognition software – and Kurzweil was hardly the only pioneer in that field.
I was present at the unveiling of the Ramona prototype discussed in the article, and I was extremely underwhelmed by it. This lash-up of motion capture, voice recognition and crude AI was supposed to be a breakthrough? That Kurzweil’s estimate of the ‘virtual personality’ market being $5 billion in a mere three years turned out to be completely wrong is sadly no surprise to me now.
On a more general note, I’m glad that the article pointed out that, “absent multiple major revolutions in both computer science and neuroscience, it’s almost certain that the bold AI prognostications of today will be no more accurate than those of the past,” – the assumption that AI progress will continue to roll on ahead just like Moore’s Law exhibits a fundamental misunderstanding of the problems involved in artifical and human intelligence.